One of the ongoing questions in the field of e-learning is “What’s next?” To be honest, who knows? Although e-learning has grown steadily over the past several years, it has not grown as fast as early predictions indicated it would. Similarly, despite substantial efforts to develop technical standards so that organizations can easily find and exchange e-learning content.

In contrast, other technical developments come out of nowhere to take over the field. For example, Macromedia Flash® became a popular authoring tool almost from the day it was introduced. A prediction written months in advance probably would have missed that one.

So rather than make a prediction about technology, we want to suggest ways that you can make your own predictions and assessments. Specifically, we suggest that you do the following:

Critically Consider Technology Predictions

Throughout the year, industry analysts and others publish predictions about the growth of technologies. At the least, these predictions help designers—who are pressed for time just keeping up with their regular workload—stay abreast of changes in technology.

In addition to following predictions about e-learning technology, we recommend that you also look at predictions in the broader areas of information systems in general, and content and document technologies in particular. The trends affecting information systems in general often affect e-learning. For example, as e-learning spending was challenged in the years 2002–2004, so information systems spending has been challenged. Similarly, related technologies such as content and document technologies are among the biggest affecting e-learning.

So when reading these predictions, don’t merely take them for granted. Read them with a critical eye. To help you develop your critical eye, we suggest that you consider these issues while reading predictions:

• Do you believe the prediction? Why or why not? In many instances, the analysts predict uses of technology that substantially differ from your own experience. In some instances, that change is likely to happen because the technology offers a better and cheaper way of performing work. In other instances, the change doesn’t seem to make sense. The technology does not offer a substantially improved way of performing work or does not offer a cost savings. Trust your instincts.

• How did the analyst arrive at this conclusion? Is it just a “gut instinct,” or does it result from scientific study?

• What support does the analyst offer for the prediction? If the prediction is based on a gut instinct, does the analyst have sufficiently broad experience on which to base predictions? If the gut-instinct prediction is based on someone else’s data, when was the data collected? Have things changed since then? For example, when analysts base 2004 predictions of growth in e-learning based on studies conducted in 2001, the data is tainted. If the analyst conducted a study on his or her own, what types of organizations were included? Was it a broad cross section or just larger organizations? If  it is just larger organizations, does your organization approach training and development like these larger organizations? Was it a study of best practice or real practice? Saul’s research of real practice suggests that it differs so substantially from best practices that best practices can only be used for inspiration, not necessarily a prediction of how ordinary organizations will operate in the future.

Follow Economic and Business Trends

Regardless of the type of e-learning developed, spending on education and training in general, and on e-learning in particular, is shaped by larger economic forces. For example, when the economy is growing, tax revenues increase and more funds are available for public primary and secondary education, as well as public university education. Similarly, in an economic downturn, budgets for corporate training departments are cut (although, contrary to popular belief, studies suggest that the amount of budget cuts received by training departments are the same as those by other departments, we are not necessarily the first to be cut and we don’t receive larger cuts than others).

To follow business trends, follow the economic trends from central governments and central banks. In contrast to the predictions of technology forecasters, predictions of general economic growth in an economy seem to emerge from prediction formulas developed and refined through the years. Specific figures to follow include:

• General economic growth rates (often predicted by a central bank, like the U.S. Federal Reserve) and validated through the economic forecasts of private bankers

• Employment trends, especially unemployment rates (like those reported monthly by the U.S. Department of Labor)

Also explore growth rates in particular industries in which you work. These are generally reported by the business press. For example, some business magazines, like Business Week, provide general outlooks by industry at the beginning of each year, then follow up with updated forecasts later in the year.

When exploring business trends, consider them broadly. Look beyond your own country, because the global economy means that events in places like Hong Kong can have an impact on places like Toronto, Ontario. Also look beyond the industry in which you work, because industries are as linked as national and regional economies. For example, a downturn in air travel affects not only other branches of tourism, but also aircraft manufacture. An upturn in housing sales also affects mortgage banking, home furnishings, and appliance manufacturing.

Follow Developments in the Field of Education

Most significantly, whatever branch of education you work in—early childhood, primary, secondary, higher, adult, or corporate—follow industry trends in education. That’s business developments, such as increases and decreases in spending and changes in policy, as opposed to intellectual developments, such as a new philosophy or theory or the latest research. Certainly new intellectual developments can have a profound impact on the work, but business developments often have a more profound effect on the educational environment. Government policies usually affect funding and workloads and, in the long term, set the agenda for corporate training and vocational education. For example, much of the focus on standards in education is the result of U.S. government policy.

Because educational developments in primary and secondary education are local, and often covered by the press, check for coverage locally.

For broader trends affecting higher education, check the Chronicle of Higher Education, a weekly newspaper that reports trends in U.S. higher education. For trends affecting corporate training, check the annual industry report from Training magazine (www.trainingmag.com), as well as the annual industry report from the American Society for Training and Development (www.astd.org).