Economic uncertainties, breakthroughs in agricultural and medical sciences, and government decisions on social insurance programs, healthcare issues, and immigration policies will all affect global population growth and migration patterns. As these variables interact, the outcomes are truly uncertain. Below are three possible scenarios that could play out between now and 2015

Restless Masses

Under the first scenario, restless masses, the global population surges, mostly in developing countries. Government promises on improved social insurance programs fail to fully materialize. Fertility rates climb as families insure themselves against economic uncertainties by relying on additional children to bring in extra income and to care for parents and grandparents in their old age. Millions of young people migrate from the countryside to the cities in pursuit of a better standard of living. Yet, in the poorest countries, there are not enough jobs to meet this surging demand, and urban centers become a breeding ground for widespread discontent, especially among restless young men. Africa, the Middle East, and Central Asia occasionally witness localized explosions of social and political unrest.

In developed countries, pension and healthcare programs are under serious strain: Older workers exit the workforce en masse as the costs of social programs skyrocket and retirement funds underperform. Yet, governments of Western countries decide to implement highly restrictive immigration policies, as other pressures such as the threat of terrorism and discontent with job losses to foreign workers in preceding years linger. As a result, migrants from developing countries who are flocking to advanced economies for higher wages find the door shut in their faces.

Immigration Queue

Under the second scenario, immigration queue, world population growth continues along a similar trajectory as today. In advanced economies such as Italy and Japan, the economic burden of supporting the elderly falls heavily on an ever-shrinking pool of workers. Those who expected to retire at 60 or 65 can now expect to work well into their 70s, while receiving limited pension and healthcare funds. Women may be encouraged through government-sponsored incentive programs to have more children to maintain stable population sizes.

In addition, governments of advanced economies may open national borders to more immigrants to offset their shrinking workforces. The United States, Canada, and Australia continue to be among the most popular destinations, since they are countries with a long history of immigration and offer more accommodating cultures. Immigration programs focus on attracting individuals with important skills and advanced education, permitting only a small number of immigrants with unique technical expertise to relocate to advanced economies. Other jobs will be outsourced to skilled workers abroad.

Corporations in advanced countries engage in a war for global talent as they fight for the limited pool of high-skilled, high-wage workers. At the same time, higher wages in advanced economies draw unskilled, low-wage workers from developing countries. The inflow of immigrants helps moderate wage pressures at the lower end of the income scale. Large numbers of poor, young, unskilled populations throughout Africa, Latin America, and developing Asia seek menial labor in North America, Europe, Australasia, and Northeast Asia.

Global Talent Flow

In the third scenario, global talent flow, population growth slows globally. As economic conditions improve and family planning programs become more widespread, fertility rates decline rapidly in developing countries. Among the advanced economies and China, dropping fertility rates and rising life expectancies have swelled the ranks of senior citizens. Some countries experience declines in their total workforce, which add to the fiscal burdens associated with supporting their aging societies. As seniors gain political clout through lobbying groups and pensioners’ parties, most governments are compelled to expand their already generous medical coverage for retirees. Pension funds dominate equity markets, and up the pressure on traded companies to emphasize immediate dividends over long-term investment, which in turn impedes innovation and growth. As the ratio of workers to retirees continues to shrink, countries increasingly utilize previously untapped demographic groups—such as women and younger people—to enter the workforce. Moreover, to make up for the labor shortage, industrialized countries have no choice but to open their doors to substantial levels of immigration from all regions of the world. Immigration programs expand for all categories of labor, placing special emphasis on recruiting workers with advanced degrees and rare skills. With open labor markets, skilled professionals migrate to major emerging markets such as China, Korea, and Malaysia, where new metropolitan areas expand to accommodate economic growth and absorb the new skilled migrants.

At the same time, higher wages in advanced economies draw unskilled, low-wage workers from developing countries, since industrialized countries view immigration as a force for moderating wage pressures at the lower end of the income scale. The billions of dollars of wages that migrants send back to their families at home provides a crucial lifeline for developing countries that have not yet found their place in the global economy.

Another Paradox

Demography is destiny—yet that destiny is still very much a work in progress. Which scenario will win out? It depends on multiple, intertwining dynamics, whose timing and likelihood may elude even the most skilled demographers. Demography reveals yet another paradox in our “world out of balance”—namely, that the drivers of the global business environment are not inherently good or bad. It’s all a matter of perspective. For instance, nobody would dispute that the advances in medical technology during the last half-century have been a positive development. Yet the longer lifespans that have resulted from those medical breakthroughs have yielded a negative impact through the global aging crisis. Similarly, changing demographic trends offer unique opportunities to businesses that can anticipate these developments. For example, lower fertility rates and smaller families translate into more disposable income for women. While rapid urbanization will challenge developing countries, sprawling megacities offer a prepackaged infrastructure for marketing and selling products and services to those living at the bottom of the income pyramid. Successful corporations will understand that they operate in a world shaped by these trends, and that they have a critical stake in the outcomes. Those that recognize the impact of external trends may be less vulnerable to strategic surprises. More than that, corporations that capitalize on the ebb and flow of the demographic tide will find themselves ahead of the game as they compete for human capital and consumers worldwide.